Senmin International (Pty) Ltd and Another v Competition Commission (14/AM/Feb12) [2013] ZACT 5; [2013] 1 CPLR 146 (CT) (7 February 2013)

78 Reportability
Competition Law

Brief Summary

Competition — Merger — Conditional approval of intermediate merger between Senmin International (Pty) Ltd and Cellulose Derivatives (Pty) Ltd — Tribunal assessing potential anti-competitive effects, particularly input foreclosure concerns regarding CMC distribution — Tribunal imposing behavioral conditions to mitigate identified risks — Merger approved subject to conditions aimed at preserving competition in the market.

Comprehensive Summary

Summary of Judgment


1. Introduction


This matter concerned merger proceedings before the Competition Tribunal of South Africa in relation to an intermediate merger between Senmin International (Pty) Ltd as the primary acquiring firm and Cellulose Derivatives (Pty) Ltd (CD) as the primary target firm. The Competition Commission was the respondent in the Tribunal proceedings.


The proposed transaction involved a vertical relationship: CD manufactured technical grade carboxymethylcellulose (CMC) used as a depressant in platinum mining flotation, while Senmin distributed technical grade CMC (including through vendor management services) to mining customers. The central concern was whether vertical integration would enable Senmin, post-merger, to foreclose rival downstream distributors, in particular G.M. Associates CC (GMA), which was the only other significant distributor/blender of technical grade CMC for mining in South Africa and which sourced one of its main CMC inputs from CD.


The merger was notified to the Competition Commission in October 2011. The Commission prohibited the merger in January 2012, and the Tribunal noted that the Commission had also prohibited the same merger in 2009, without the merging parties then pursuing Tribunal consideration. Following the 2012 prohibition, the merging parties requested the Tribunal to consider the proposed merger in terms of section 16(1)(a) of the Competition Act 89 of 1998. The Tribunal heard evidence in July and September 2012 and received final written submissions on conditions by 31 October 2012.


On 8 November 2012, the Tribunal conditionally approved the merger. These reasons (issued on 7 February 2013) explained why the Tribunal concluded that the merger was likely to substantially prevent or lessen competition absent conditions, but that the identified harm could be addressed through behavioural supply and pricing conditions imposed on the merged entity.


The general subject-matter of the dispute concerned vertical foreclosure in the supply chain for technical grade CMC used in mining flotation, including whether imported CMC constituted a sufficient competitive constraint and whether downstream CMC products were meaningfully differentiated so as to limit diversion from a foreclosed distributor to the merged entity.


2. Material Facts


Senmin was a wholly-owned subsidiary within the AECI group and operated, among other activities, as a distributor of specialised mining chemicals. Of particular relevance, Senmin distributed technical grade CMC to platinum mining customers in South Africa, marketing three CMC products (Sendep 30D, Sendep 30E and Sendep 30F) that were manufactured exclusively for Senmin by CD using Senmin’s proprietary knowhow. Senmin also provided vendor management services (VMS) to mining customers, under which it supplied chemicals and associated services (and, on the evidence, equipment for storage and mixing at certain concentrator plants).


CD, controlled by the Shannon Trust, was found to be the only producer in South Africa of technical grade CMC. It produced multiple grades of technical grade CMC and supplied two operating production lines: one line supplying Senmin and another supplying GMA. Besides Senmin, GMA was the only other significant distributor/blender supplying technical grade CMC products to the mining industry in South Africa. ChemQuest and Protea Mining supplied CMC to mines but were found to source their CMC products from GMA and to on-sell them; they did not independently tailor CMC products.


The transaction, in terms of a sale of business agreement, entailed Senmin acquiring CD’s technical grade CMC manufacturing business as a going concern, resulting in Senmin obtaining sole control of CD. Senmin’s stated rationale included securing supply of CMC and avoiding disclosure of knowhow to actual or potential competitors, together with the ability to further develop CMC technology and potentially expand production capacity. The seller’s rationale was to realise value.


On public interest, the Tribunal recorded that the transaction raised no public interest concerns, including no anticipated negative effect on employment in South Africa and no envisaged retrenchments.


The Tribunal delineated the upstream market as the manufacture and supply of technical grade CMC for use in mining, excluding guar (found not to be a real substitute for most mines) and excluding pure grade CMC (imported and generally too costly for local mining use). The downstream market was delineated as the distribution of CMC for use in flotation in mining, and its geographic scope was treated as national.


A substantial factual dispute concerned whether CMC imports could serve as an effective substitute and constraint. The Tribunal accepted evidence that import statistics did not allow a reliable distinction between pure and technical grade CMC, and it accepted that while CMC was imported into South Africa for other uses (notably food and detergents), there was no credible evidence that imported CMC offered a feasible alternative (in terms of both quality/performance and competitive price) for mining flotation use in South Africa. GMA imported CMC from Lamberti, but the Tribunal accepted GMA’s evidence that imported CMC was used in blends and could not replace CD’s locally supplied CMC as the base for most of GMA’s range of mining products. The Tribunal also accepted evidence of past investigations by GMA into import alternatives, including quality-performance failures and/or uncompetitive landed cost outcomes, and it treated these as relevant given the evidence that GMA had been threatened with supply interruptions by CD during the period when the merger was being considered.


Another disputed issue concerned downstream substitutability and differentiation between Senmin’s and GMA’s CMC offerings. The Tribunal accepted that mining customers’ primary concern in selecting depressants was recovery performance, with price as a secondary metric where products performed similarly. The only mining customer witness, Lonmin’s representative, testified that Senmin’s Sendep 30F and a GMA product were substitutable for Lonmin (with testing showing no real difference in recovery), and rejected the suggestion that the products were significantly differentiated and not substitutable. The Tribunal also treated price comparisons between Senmin and GMA as inconclusive because Senmin’s pricing was intertwined with its VMS offering, including equipment and services that GMA did not provide.


The Tribunal treated as material the evidence that switching to an untested reagent would require extensive testing, with a process potentially taking up to a year, and that mines were highly sensitive to any disruption in reagent supply because interruptions to production were unacceptable. This was linked to the Tribunal’s assessment of the likely effects of foreclosure and customers’ responses.


3. Legal Issues


The central legal question was whether the proposed vertical merger was likely to substantially prevent or lessen competition through input foreclosure in the downstream market for distribution of CMC-based depressants to mining customers, particularly by enabling the merged entity to foreclose or raise the costs of GMA.


The Tribunal framed the competitive harm principally as involving the application of competition-law principles to contested economic and factual questions, including market definition and competitive constraint, the practical feasibility of import substitution, and the extent of rivalry and substitution between the downstream offerings of Senmin and GMA. The assessment also required an evaluative judgment about the merged entity’s ability and incentive to engage in foreclosure, and about whether behavioural conditions would adequately address the merger-specific harm.


Although the Commission advanced additional theories, the Tribunal expressly stated it would not decide the Commission’s “leveraging” theory concerning VMS minimum purchase requirements and bundling into adjacent flocculent markets, and it likewise did not decide an additional theory of harm relating to foreclosure in adjacent frothers markets due to insufficient substantiation. The Tribunal confined its analysis to the merger-specific concern of downstream foreclosure in relation to CMC distribution.


4. Court’s Reasoning


The Tribunal approached the matter by first identifying the vertical structure of the supply chain and the relevant markets. It accepted that the relevant upstream product market was the manufacture and supply of technical grade CMC for mining, excluding guar and pure grade CMC as substitutes. It then focused on the degree of concentration and the availability of competitive constraints in both upstream production and downstream distribution.


In assessing upstream constraints, the Tribunal placed weight on the finding that CD was the only domestic producer of technical grade CMC and that new entry into domestic production was highly unlikely, given the size of the market and existing capacity. The Tribunal considered whether imported CMC should expand the geographic market and constrain domestic supply. It rejected that proposition on the evidence before it, concluding that there was no credible evidence that imported technical grade CMC suitable for mining flotation could be obtained at an acceptable quality and at a competitive price (once duties, transport, and inventory costs were considered), and that any purported import alternatives had not been tested for performance. While recognising that imports might place a longer-term ceiling on price increases, the Tribunal did not accept imports as a meaningful post-merger constraint for the foreclosure analysis.


On the downstream side, the Tribunal treated distribution as the relevant level because mining customers did not procure CMC directly from international manufacturers and relied on local distributors that provided intermediary services including adaptation, testing, and dosing support. It accepted that effective competition in distribution was, for practical purposes, between Senmin and GMA, given that other suppliers (ChemQuest and Protea) sourced from GMA and did not tailor products independently.


A major point in dispute was whether Senmin’s and GMA’s products and services were so differentiated that they did not materially constrain each other. The Tribunal treated the perspective of mining customers as central and regarded recovery as the key variable driving demand. It relied heavily on Lonmin’s evidence as the only customer testimony. That evidence supported substitutability between Senmin’s and GMA’s products for at least certain applications, and it did not support Senmin’s assertion that its products were inherently superior in performance. The Tribunal therefore did not accept that differentiation was sufficient to neutralise competitive rivalry between the two distributors.


The Tribunal also assessed evidence of price differences between the distributors and found it not determinative of substitution. It accepted that Senmin’s VMS arrangements could embed equipment and service costs into pricing, making direct comparisons with GMA’s pricing misleading. It further accepted that differences in dosing and wastage reduction under VMS complicated a mine’s total cost assessment. Even so, the Tribunal concluded that mines regarded Senmin and GMA as alternative suppliers and that a reduction in alternatives would weaken customers’ bargaining position.


Having found upstream monopoly production, high downstream concentration, limited viable import constraint, and meaningful downstream substitution, the Tribunal evaluated the merged entity’s ability and incentive to foreclose. It accepted that CD’s supply to GMA was a significant input for GMA’s product range and that replacing it with imports would be difficult and slow due to performance testing requirements and inventory/security-of-supply considerations. Given mines’ intolerance for supply disruptions and long testing cycles for new reagents, the Tribunal reasoned that even partial foreclosure or uncertainty about a rival’s security of supply could lead mines to shift to the merged entity as the only locally secure integrated supplier.


In assessing whether foreclosure would be profitable and attractive, the Tribunal considered but did not find decisive the economic experts’ diversion modelling. It preferred the factual evidence regarding customer behaviour, switching constraints, and security-of-supply requirements. It reasoned that, given the market characteristics and the ability of the merged entity to adapt products and innovate to meet customer needs, diversion to the merged entity was likely in a foreclosure scenario. The Tribunal concluded that the merged entity would have both the ability and incentive to foreclose downstream rivals, thereby reducing competitive choice, weakening customer bargaining, and potentially reducing competitive pressure to improve product performance and innovation over time.


The Tribunal then considered remedies. It recorded that the merging parties tendered behavioural conditions to address foreclosure concerns, that the Commission regarded them as inadequate in their original form, and that after Tribunal-directed engagement and submissions, the parties accepted several enhancements. The Tribunal imposed the final amended behavioural conditions and added an additional monitoring condition relating to the Commission’s ability to verify compliance with the pricing provisions.


The Tribunal concluded that the conditions were adequately tailored and proportionate to maintain effective downstream rivalry by ensuring continued supply to GMA on specified terms, thereby addressing the merger-specific input foreclosure concern.


5. Outcome and Relief


The Tribunal conditionally approved the intermediate merger between Senmin and CD, subject to a set of behavioural conditions reflected in “Annexure A”.


The conditions required the merged entity to supply GMA with an annual minimum quantity of CMC at equivalent quality and specifications to that previously supplied, and imposed a pricing formula to calculate the maximum supply price. The conditions also provided for non-discriminatory supply to other customers in specified circumstances, mechanisms for independent verification of cost increases associated with price increases, provisions governing volume adjustments and supply disruptions (including verification), ongoing testing to maintain product specifications, and reporting and monitoring obligations. The Tribunal additionally imposed a condition to enable effective monitoring of compliance with the pricing provisions.


No order as to costs was recorded in the reasons.


Cases Cited


No cases were cited in the provided judgment text.


Legislation Cited


Competition Act 89 of 1998 (as amended), including section 16(1)(a).


Rules of Court Cited


No rules of court were cited in the provided judgment text.


Held


The Tribunal held that the proposed transaction, assessed as a vertical merger, was likely to substantially prevent or lessen competition in the relevant market(s) because the merged entity would have both the ability and incentive to foreclose downstream rivals in the distribution of technical grade CMC for mining flotation, particularly GMA, through refusal to supply and/or raising rivals’ costs.


The Tribunal further held that the identified competitive harm would, however, be adequately remedied by imposing behavioural conditions designed to preserve downstream competition by ensuring continued supply to GMA on specified quality, quantity, and price terms, together with monitoring and verification measures.


LEGAL PRINCIPLES


The Tribunal applied the principle that a vertical merger can harm competition where the merged firm gains control of an important upstream input and can engage in input foreclosure by refusing supply or raising rivals’ costs in a downstream market. The assessment requires an evaluative inquiry into both the ability to foreclose (including upstream market power and the availability of alternatives such as imports) and the incentive to foreclose (including the likelihood of diversion to the merged entity and market characteristics affecting profitability).


In evaluating whether alternatives constrain foreclosure, the Tribunal applied the principle that putative supply alternatives (including imports) must be credible not only in theory but in practice, considering quality/performance suitability, landed cost competitiveness, and the practicalities of switching, including customer testing requirements and security-of-supply considerations. Where products are performance-sensitive and customer qualification/testing is lengthy, the Tribunal treated switching as slow and disruptive, affecting the competitive constraint posed by alternative suppliers.


The Tribunal also applied the principle that claims of downstream product differentiation must be assessed with reference to customer evidence and behaviour in the relevant setting, particularly where product performance (here, recovery in mining flotation) is decisive and price comparisons may be confounded by bundled services and equipment.


Finally, the Tribunal applied the principle that where a merger is likely to substantially lessen competition, it may nonetheless be approved subject to conditions that are targeted, proportionate, and capable of monitoring and enforcement, including mechanisms to maintain supply, constrain pricing, and verify compliance through independent auditing and reporting.

NON-CONFIDENTIAL VERSION
1




COMPETITION TRIBUNAL OF SOUTH AFRICA


Case No: 14/AM/Feb12
(014001)
In the matter between:

Senmin International (Pty) Ltd Applicants
Cellulose Derivatives (Pty) Ltd

and

The Competition Commission Respondent


In consideration of the intermediate merger between:

Senmin International (Pty) Ltd Primary Acquiring Firm

and

Cellulose Derivatives (Pty) Ltd Primary Target Fir m


Panel : Takalani Madima (Presiding Member)
Andreas Wessels (Tribunal Member)
Merle Holden (Tribunal Member)
Heard on : 02 - 06, 09, 12 and 13 July 2012; and 1 1, 12 and 27
September 2012, with last submission received on 31
October 2012
Order issued on : 08 November 2012
Reasons issued on : 07 February 2013


Reasons for Decision



Conditional approval

1. On 08 November 2012 the Competition Tribunal (“T ribunal”) conditionally approved
the intermediate merger involving Senmin Internatio nal (Pty) Ltd (“Senmin”), the

NON-CONFIDENTIAL VERSION
2

primary acquiring firm, and Cellulose Derivatives (Pty) Ltd (“CD”), the primary target
firm (these parties are collectively referred to hereinafter as “the merging parties”).
2. The reasons for conditionally approving the prop osed transaction follow below.
Parties to proposed transaction and their activities
Acquiring firm
3. The acquiring firm is Senmin. Senmin is a wholly -owned subsidiary of Chemical
Services Limited, which in turn is controlled by AE CI Limited (“AECI”). AECI is a
public company listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE).
4. Senmin inter alia distributes a range of (specialised performance) c hemicals and
supplies related services to the mining industry. T hese chemicals include so-called
“reagent” chemicals that are used in flotation in p latinum mines and include
amongst them depressants, collectors and frothers.
5. Of particular relevance to the competition asses sment of this transaction are
Senmin’s activities as a distributor of technical grade carboxymthylcellulose (“CMC”)
to platinum mining customers in South Africa. CMC a cts as a depressant in the
mining froth flotation process (see further descrip tion of CMC below). Senmin, more
specifically, markets three technical grade CMC pro ducts to the mining industry,
namely Sendep 30D, Sendep 30E and Sendep 30F. These products are
manufactured exclusively for Senmin by CD (the targ et firm), using Senmin’s
proprietary knowhow.
6. Senmin furthermore is the only local producer of xanthate, a collector 1 in the mining
flotation process. 2
7. Senmin further offers so-called Vendor Management Services (“VMS”) to its mining
customers. For this purpose Senmin has employed a l arge number of metallurgists,
technicians and process operators. According to Sen min its VMS contracts with its
mining customers contain a “target” for the percent age of chemicals that customers

1 The process of creating a mineral rich froth is achieved by adding a surfactant or “collector”
chemical in order to render the surface of the minerals hydrophobic.
2 Although Senmin currently mostly sells xanthate in liquid form, it recently also invested in a
solids (i.e. pelletised) xanthate plant.

NON-CONFIDENTIAL VERSION
3

should source from Senmin in order for its service to be effective. 3 Mr. Botha,
Senmin’s factual witness (see paragraph 11.3 below) , however contended that this
contracted target is not enforced in practice. 4 We however note that non-VMS CMC
sales comprise a relatively small proportion of Senmin’s overall CMC sales, with the
majority of Senmin’s CMC being sold via VMS. 5
Target firm
8. The primary target firm is CD. CD is controlled by the Shannon Trust. 6 CD does not
directly or indirectly control any other firm.
9. CD is the only producer in South Africa of techn ical grade CMC. It produces five
grades of technical grade CMC and is the proprietor of the “Norilose” CMC brand.
These CMC products have varying properties, but are predominantly used in mining
applications and in the production of detergents. I t is the mining applications that
are relevant to the competition assessment of this transaction.
10. CD’s CMC production process is referred to as a “dry” process.7 It currently has two
operating lines: one production line supplies techn ical grade CMC to Senmin (the
acquiring firm) and the other production line suppl ies technical grade CMC to G.M.
Associates CC (“GMA”). Besides Senmin, GMA is the o nly other significant
distributor of technical grade CMC products to the mining industry in South Africa
(see paragraphs 75 to 79 below).
Witnesses

11. The following witnesses gave evidence at the Tribunal hearing:





3 See transcript pages 809 to 811 for Mr. Botha’s (see paragraph 11.3 below) testimony on
Senmin’s VMS requirements regarding mining customers’ minimum product purchases.
4 See slide 10 of Exhibit 17, which shows the depressants and xanthates as a percentage of
Senmin’s VMS sales per customer.
5 See RBB Report, paragraph 170.
6 The beneficiaries of the Shannon Trust are members of the Shannon family.

6 The beneficiaries of the Shannon Trust are members of the Shannon family.
7 Certain other (international) CMC producers, such as Lamberti (see paragraph 11.4 below), uses
a solvent media process to produce CMC. See Mr. Ferrari’s testimony at transcript pages 417 and
418.

NON-CONFIDENTIAL VERSION
4

Economic experts
11.1. Mr. Richard Murgatroyd (“Murgatroyd”) from RB B Economics testified as an
economics expert for the merging parties.

11.2. Ms. Sarah Truen (“Truen”) from DNA Economics testified as an economics
expert for the Competition Commission (“Commission”).

Factual witnesses
11.3. The merging parties called the following fact ual witnesses:
• Mr. Cecil Shannon (“Shannon”), a Director of CD; a nd
• Mr. Theunis Botha (“Botha”), the Managing Director of Senmin.

11.4. The following factual witnesses gave testimon y on behalf of the Commission:
• Mr. Selwyn Edward Green (“Green”), the Senior Mana ger Technical,
Concentrators at Lonmin Platinum Mining (“Lonmin”).
Lonmin is a primary producer of Platinum Group Meta ls and a
customer of a suite of reagent chemicals used in fl otation, including
CMC products. It currently purchases technical grad e CMC both from
Senmin and GMA.

• Mr. Chris Pretorius (“Pretorius”), the Managing Di rector of ChemQuest
Africa (Pty) Ltd (“ChemQuest”).
ChemQuest is active in the trading of chemicals to the mining industry,
including the supply of carbon, cyanide and floccul ants. It also
supplies flotation chemicals like depressants, xant hates, frothers,
collectors and copper sulphate. It buys CMC products from GMA.

• Dr. Mario Ferrari (“Ferrari”), the Director for th e CMC Technology
Platform at Lamberti S.p.A (“Lamberti”).
Lamberti, headquartered in Italy, is a global manuf acturer of speciality
chemicals, including all grades of CMC. Its main ma nufacturing
presence is in China, the USA, Brazil and India, al though only its

NON-CONFIDENTIAL VERSION
5

Italian plant produces CMC. 8 Lamberti supplies CMC to GMA, but it
neither directly supplies CMC to any mining custome r in South Africa
nor does blending of CMC in South Africa (also see paragraph 114
below).

• Mr. Greg Nielson (“Nielson”), the owner and manage r of GMA.
GMA is active in inter alia the production and distribution of chemicals
for the metallurgical industry, including flotation and gangue
depressants. This includes the supply of technical grade CMC to the
platinum minerals mining industry. A portion of the CMC acquired by
GMA is on-sold whilst the rest is processed to prod uce cellulose
based gangue depressants which are sold under GMA b rand names.
GMA currently sells approximately 18 different CMC products.

12. We note that Green from Lonmin, a Commission wi tness, was the only mining
customer to testify at the hearing and that the mer ging parties did not call any
mining customer as a witness. This is relevant sinc e one of the major issues in
dispute between the merging parties and the Commission was the substitutability by
mining customers between different CMC products, sp ecifically those of Senmin
and GMA.

Proposed transaction and rationale

13. In terms of the Sale of Business Agreement , Senmin will acquire the technical grade
CMC manufacturing business of CD as a going concern giving Senmin sole control
of CD on completion of the proposed transaction.

14. As rationale for the proposed transaction Botha stated that Senmin wishes to
secure its current and future supply of CMC without the risk of disclosing its know-
how to an actual or potential competitor. We furthe r note that Senmin’s strategic
documents identify the risks of a CMC “ loss of supply ” or an “ alternative buyer ” of
CD.
9 Senmin further stated that it wishes to further de velop the technology in its
CMC products and thus enhance its value proposition to local platinum producers,

8 See transcript page 367.
9 Transcript page 991 in particular, as well as pages 990 to 995. Also see record page 2130.

NON-CONFIDENTIAL VERSION
6

which it is best able to do by operating its own CM C plant. Senmin furthermore
believes that there is an opportunity for it to exp and CD’s production capacity after
the proposed merger. 10

15. From the sellers’ perspective, the current CD shareholders wish to realise the value
of the CD business.
Background to competition assessment
16. This intermediate merger was notified to the Co mmission in October 2011 and the
Commission prohibited the proposed transaction in J anuary 2012. We note that the
Commission had also previously, i.e. in 2009, prohi bited this merger. In the latter
case the merging parties sought no consideration of the matter by the Tribunal.

17. On 07 February 2012 the merging parties, in ter ms of section 16(1)(a) of the
Competition Act of 1998,
11 filed a request with the Tribunal to consider the proposed
merger, setting out the grounds upon which they sub mitted the Tribunal should
approve the proposed merger, with or without conditions.

18. As is evident from the above description of the merging parties’ activities, there is a
vertical relationship between them since CD manufac tures and supplies technical
grade CMC to Senmin which Senmin distributes to its platinum mining customers.

19. We note that the proposed merger raises no publ ic interest concerns. The merging
parties confirmed that there will be no negative ef fect on employment in South
Africa as a result of the proposed transaction and that no retrenchments are
envisaged. 12 The proposed transaction further raises no other p ublic interest
concerns. We therefore only deal with the competition aspects in these reasons.

20. In these reasons we shall focus on the main com petition issue in dispute between
the merging parties and the Commission, namely the prospects for the proposed
merger to result in anti-competitive effects in the downstream CMC distribution
market as a result of the (input) foreclosure by th e merged entity of other CMC

market as a result of the (input) foreclosure by th e merged entity of other CMC
distributors, specifically of GMA. GMA, as a curren t CMC customer of CD and a

10 Botha’s witness statement paragraphs 5.1 to 5.3.
11 Act No. 89 of 1998, as amended.
12 See inter alia page 13 of the Commission’s merger record.

NON-CONFIDENTIAL VERSION
7

(potential) rival to Senmin in the distribution of CMC, raised the concern that the
vertical integration caused by the merger would cau se GMA to be refused local
CMC supplies at competitive prices which would increase its costs.

21. The Commission concluded that the merger is lik ely to result in two forms of
foreclosure of the merged entity’s downstream rival (s) in CMC distribution, in
particular GMA, namely (i) a complete or partial re fusal to supply; and/or (ii) a
raising of rivals’ costs.

22. We note that we shall not in these reasons deal with the Commission’s “leveraging”
theory as advanced by Truen. The Commission namely contended that the
proposed merger will give the merged entity the abi lity to leverage its market power
in certain markets into adjacent markets where it d oes not have market power to
achieve anti-competitive outcomes. More specificall y, the Commission posited that,
if Senmin achieved market power in relation to the distribution of CMC as a result of
the proposed merger, it would be able, through the use of certain “ minimum
purchase requirement ” provisions in Senmin’s VMS agreements with mining
customers (see paragraph 7 above), to leverage that market power into the markets
for other flocculent chemicals (thus foreclosing co mpetitors in those markets
through bundling). We have however imposed behaviou ral conditions on the
merged entity that address the merger-specific conc ern of post-merger input
foreclosure in relation to CMC. We further note tha t Senmin provided its VMS
services prior to the proposed merger. Given this fact and the supply conditions that
we have imposed on the merged entity in relation to CMC, we found that the
“leveraging” form of competitive harm was unlikely to be of concern. We therefore
do not deal with this aspect in any further detail in these reasons.

23. We further note that we shall also not in these reasons deal with the Commission’s

23. We further note that we shall also not in these reasons deal with the Commission’s
additional theory of harm relating to a self-standi ng concern of input foreclosure in
the (adjacent
13 ) frothers market(s) since this theory was not adeq uately
substantiated by evidence of likely harm.



13 I.e. adjacent to the CMC market(s).

NON-CONFIDENTIAL VERSION
8

24. The Commission contended that the proposed mer ger should be prohibited. The
merging parties however tendered a set of behaviour al conditions which in their
view addressed the Commission’s concerns with regar ds to any potential post-
merger input foreclosure of (other) CMC distributor s in South Africa. The
Commission, however, was of the view that these sup ply conditions were
inadequate to address the competition concerns. It furthermore during closing
argument contended that if the tendered conditions were to be imposed by the
Tribunal, then it had to be strengthened in certain respects.

25. The Tribunal therefore requested the Commission to provide written comments on
the merging parties’ tendered set of conditions. Th e Commission submitted these
comments to the Tribunal on 12 October 2012, to whi ch the merging parties
responded on 19 October 2012. After further corresp ondence between the Tribunal
and the merging parties they accepted a number of t he Commission’s proposed
enhancements of their tendered conditions. The Trib unal received the merging
parties’ amended and final set of tendered conditions on 31 October 2012. We have
imposed these behavioural conditions on the merged entity, together with an
additional condition that relates to the monitoring of the pricing provisions of the
conditions (see paragraphs 120 to 122 below).

CMC and its uses

26. As background to the market delineation and fur ther competition analysis that
follow, we provide the following background to the characteristics of CMC, the
various types of CMC manufactured and supplied and their downstream uses in
other production processes.
27. CMC is a sodium salt of a carboxymethyl cellulo se derivative derived from wood
pulp or cotton linters. The production of CMC is ac hieved by the reaction of
cellulose with monochloroacetic acid in the presenc e of sodium hydroxide. It forms
an odourless white semi-synthetic polymer powder, w ith salts such as sodium

an odourless white semi-synthetic polymer powder, w ith salts such as sodium
chloride and sodium glycolate as in situ by-product s. Depending on the degree of
derivatisation and molecular size, the CMC powder g radually dissolves in water at
low concentrations to form a clear or opaque viscou s solution. CMC is mainly used

NON-CONFIDENTIAL VERSION
9

to control the viscosity and rheology of fluids as a thickener, stabiliser or suspending
agent.
28. Different CMC grades are manufactured which are classified according to the purity
of the CMC in the product (i.e. the extent of remov al or lessening of salts in its
production process); its degree of derivatisation ( DS); and its polymer chain length
(i.e. the number of linked polymer glucose units).
29. The industry in general refers to two main type s of CMC, namely (i) pure grade
CMC; and (ii) technical grade CMC. The basic differ ence between pure and
technical grade CMC is that the sodium chloride (se e paragraph 27 above) is
washed out using large amounts of solvents from the technical grade CMC which
gives the purified grade CMC. We discuss these two CMC grades in more detail
below.
Pure grade CMC
30. Pure grade CMC, mainly used in the production o f food products, pharmaceuticals
and cosmetics, is not produced in South Africa and therefore all pure grade CMC is
imported into South Africa.
14 Ferrari testified that pure grade CMC is more than 95%
pure and that so-called “food” grade CMC is more than 99% pure.
31. Pure grade CMC is however also used in the platinum mining industry in Zimbabwe
where the specific Zimbabwean mines have equipment designed for the use with
pure grade CMC. Botha indicated that although pure grade CMC can be used in
mining, it is costly to extract salts in the CMC pu rification process. As a result, it is
generally only economically viable to use pure grad e CMC in mining if a very
considerable amount of CMC is required as a depress ant and/or special polymer
characteristics are required for the use in respect of the ore in question. 15





14 See inter alia Shannon’s witness statement at paragraph 4.11.
15 Botha’s witness statement, paragraph 3.6.

NON-CONFIDENTIAL VERSION
10

Technical grade CMC
32. Technical grade CMC 16 is used in the South African mining industry in fr oth flotation
processes, in the detergents industry and in the ma nufacturing of binders,
adhesives and soaps. “Detergent” grade CMC is norma lly supplied to detergent
powder manufacturers such as Unilever and Procter & Gamble. We note that for the
detergent industry the use of CMC is not so specifi c and therefore not as critical as
per the mining flotation application. 17
33. CD manufactures only technical grade CMC. Our c ompetition analysis focuses on
the use of technical grade CMC in mining for flotation.
34. The South African platinum mines require not on ly depressants, but a suite of
reagent chemicals used in flotation, including depr essants, collectors (i.e.
xanthate 18 ), frothers and copper sulphate 19 . This flotation process occurs when ore
is finely milled and then undergoes several treatme nts with various types of
chemicals, which are designed to remove impurities in the ore and concentrate the
mineral being extracted. The suite of chemicals var ies depending on the
characteristics of the ore, the relative costs of the various chemicals and the desired
outcome.

35. Froth flotation, more specifically, proceeds fr om crushing and grinding ore in order
to decrease the particle size and liberate valuable minerals. It is a process for
selectively separating minerals from gangue by coll ecting the minerals reporting in
the froth phase, while at the same time retaining t he gangue in the slurry phase. A
combination of a number of chemicals is used to ext ract the valuable minerals from
the ore using the natural floatability of gangue an d the tendency for heavy mineral
to sink to achieve selective separation of a minera l-rich ore. Polysaccharides
(carbohydrate polymers of repeating monosaccharide units) such as starch, CMC or

16 Ferrari indicated that the purity level of technical grade CMC would normally be up to 75% (see
transcript page 378).
17 See inter alia Ferrari’s witness statement, paragraph 25.
18 Xanthate is the primary collector in use in the mining industry.
19 This is used as a froth modifier.

NON-CONFIDENTIAL VERSION
11

natural gums (such as guar) are added as depressant s for gangue to the flotation
process. 20
Vertical relationship and relevant markets
36. As noted in paragraph 18 above, the proposed me rger is best characterised as
vertical in nature. The structure of the supply cha in of technical grade CMC can
essentially be broken down into two levels, namely (i) CMC manufacture and
supply, the upstream market; and (ii) CMC distribut ion to mining customers, the
downstream market. CD is active at the manufacturing level and Senmin (and GMA)
are active at the distribution level.
CMC vs. guar
37. The two main depressants required by the South African
platinum mines are CMC and guar. It was however lar gely common cause that for
most mining customers guar is not a real substitute to CMC.
21 This was clear from
the testimony of the factual witnesses.
38. The evidence was that a mine’s choice of depres sant is
determined primarily by the characteristics of the ore body in question. Pretorius
indicated that there are rare instances where mines can use both guar and CMC
and that the decision whether to use guar or CMC or both depends on the type
of ore body in that particular location. 22 Botha indicated that guar is different to
CMC with respect to viscosity, ionic charge and str ucture. He stated that the
differences in these factors in most instances make the one product substantially
more appropriate to the needs of a particular minin g customer than the other. A
mining customer would typically only consider switc hing between CMC and guar if
there was a change in the mining process or the ore body. 23 Green confirmed that
Lonmin switched from using guar to using CMC since “ CMC was a better

20 See Botha’s witness statement, paragraphs 3.5 to 3.11.
21 See RBB Report, paragraphs 40 and 41.
22 Pretorius’s witness statement, paragraphs 23 and 24.
23 Botha’s witness statement, paragraph 3.18.

NON-CONFIDENTIAL VERSION
12

depressant and could be used on both Merensky and U G2 type ores. Thus
Lonmin only uses CMC on all of its concentrator pla nts .” 24
39. Furthermore, with regards to price, Green state d that at times
CMC has been cheaper than guar 25 and Botha indicated that guar is subject to very
significant fluctuations in price. Botha also state d that while reasonable variations in
price would not impact upon a mine’s choice of depr essant, the variations in guar
cost are sufficiently significant that they can aff ect the overall profitability of the
mine. He said that, for example, the price of guar recently moved from $1 000/ton to
$20 000/ton. 26
40. We conclude that technical grade CMC and guar c onstitute
separate relevant product markets from a mining customer perspective.
Pure grade CMC
41. We have found no credible evidence that pure gr ade CMC - from a general South
African based mining customer perspective - is a re al substitute for technical grade
CMC. In general terms pure grade CMC is too expensi ve for use in local mining,
despite the fact that less product is required for the same level of efficacy. No
mining customer indicated the contrary. However, as noted above, pure grade CMC
(imported from China as far as we know) is used in certain Zimbabwean mines (see
paragraph 31 above).
Technical grade CMC for use in detergents
42. The merging parties contended that technical gr ade CMC for use in detergents
constitutes a technically and economically feasible alternative to the CMC that GMA
currently sources from CD. We however found no cogent evidence in support of this
claim for the general South African mining customer.


24 Green’s witness statement, paragraph 12.
25 Green’s witness statement, paragraph 12.
26 Botha’s witness statement, paragraph 3.18.

NON-CONFIDENTIAL VERSION
13


Conclusion: relevant markets
Upstream market
43. We conclude that the relevant upstream market i s the market for the manufacture
and supply of technical grade CMC for use in mining.
44. With regards to the geographic scope of this ma rket, Truen argued that the market
is regional (including South Africa and its neighbo uring countries) while Murgatroyd
argued that the market should include both domestic ally-produced CMC and
imports. We discuss CMC imports below and conclude that, on balance, there is no
reason to believe that (actual and potential) CMC i mports would be a significant
post-merger constraint on the merged entity (see paragraphs 50 to 74).
Downstream market
45. With regards to the downstream market, the evid ence was that
the supply of CMC to South African mining customers is intermediated by
distributors, i.e. there is no direct supply by CMC manufacturers to mining
customers. We define the relevant downstream market as the market for the
distribution of CMC for use in flotation in mining. We note that the primary dispute
between the merging parties and the Commission cent red on the extent to which
products within the distribution market were differ entiated from each other, rather
than on the exact boundaries of the relevant produc t market. We deal with the
merging parties’ claims regarding differentiation below.
46. The economic experts of the merging parties and the Commission were in
agreement that this market is national in its geographic scope.
7

NON-CONFIDENTIAL VERSION
14


Market concentration
Upstream production and supply of technical grade CMC
47. As stated in paragraph 9 above, CD is the only manufacturer in South Africa of
technical grade CMC.
27
48. The evidence has further shown new entry into C MC production in South Africa to
be highly unlikely. We note that the proposed merge r results in the removal of any
threat of potential entry by Senmin at the CMC prod uction level. We further note
that Shannon indicated that CD currently produces w ell below capacity. 28 Ferrari
was of the view that “[i]t will not add value to the South African marke t to introduce
another manufacturer because the estimated growth i n the mining industry, as well
as in other applications, does not justify the inve stment. Also, the current and
potential market for CMC in South Africa does not j ustify the investment of a new
CMC plant in the country .” 29 Nielson held a similar view and stated that, given the
size of the South African market and the existing c apacity of CD, it would be difficult
to justify an investment in a plant sufficiently la rge to realize economies of scale in
order to service the domestic demand for CMC. 30
49. Thus, ignoring (potential) imports (discussed b elow) for the time being, the
upstream CMC production market is extremely concent rated with CD as the only
local manufacturer and supplier of technical grade CMC. As further noted, future
new entry at the production level is highly unlikely.
CMC imports
50. At the core of the debate between the merging parties and the Commission was the
question whether a local CMC distributor is able to import CMC of a sufficient
quality into South Africa at a competitive price co mpared to the local price of CD.
The merging parties contended that imports exert a competitive constraint on CD

27 Shannon noted that a company named Somchem also ma nufactured technical grade CMC in

27 Shannon noted that a company named Somchem also ma nufactured technical grade CMC in
South Africa for mining but that it ceased production in 1998.
28 Shannon’s witness statement, paragraph 4.4.
29 Ferrari’s witness statement, paragraph 40.
30 Nielson’s witness statement, paragraph 25.

NON-CONFIDENTIAL VERSION
15

and should therefore be included in the delineation of the upstream geographic
market. This contention thus is also highly relevan t to the issue of the merged
entity’s ability to post-merger foreclose other loc al CMC distributors. The
Commission, on the other hand, held that technical grade CMC imports were not a
post-merger constraint on the merged entity.
51. We have considered the available evidence with regards to historical imports of
technical grade CMC into South Africa, as well as f ailed attempts to import. We
have also considered the claimed, but untested, pot ential of such imports (as
advanced by the merging parties), as discussed below.
52. Although the Commission’s market investigation confirmed that significant amounts
of CMC is currently supplied into South Africa, it found that it is not possible from
the available import statistics to differentiate be tween pure and technical grade
CMC. This was confirmed by Shannon. 31 It is therefore not currently possible to
quantify, apart from the GMA CMC import data, the levels of imports of CMC for use
in mining applications.
53. The evidence further was that the local food in dustry imports high quality CMC. As
noted above, pure grade CMC by definition is import ed into South Africa because
there is no domestic production of pure grade CMC. As also noted, there is no
evidence that mining customers in South Africa can use pure grade CMC in their
flotation processes as a real substitute to mining grade CMC. As also noted above,
pure grade CMC is however used in Zimbabwe since it is suitable to the particular
ore bodies and equipment used.
54. The evidence further was that the detergent ind ustry imports low quality technical
grade CMC. Shannon confirmed that a significant pro portion of the imports of
technical grade CMC is currently used in the manufacturing of detergents. 32
55. The Commission therefore concluded that there a re imports of pure grade CMC

55. The Commission therefore concluded that there a re imports of pure grade CMC
used in the food industry and of lower grade CMC us ed in the detergent industry,
but that such imports would not pose any competitiv e constraint on the merged
entity. Based on the available evidence on balance we concur with this finding.

31 Shannon’s witness statement, paragraph 4.2.
32 Shannon’s witness statement, paragraph 4.3.

NON-CONFIDENTIAL VERSION
16

56. Given the highly concentrated nature of both the upstream CMC production and the
downstream CMC distribution markets, as well as the limited number of mining
customers in South Africa that use technical grade CMC, market participants in
general would be aware of which distributors are su pplying which mining customers
and if any mining customer is directly sourcing its CMC requirements from
overseas. Despite Shannon’s allegations that severa l local distributors import
technical grade CMC to supply to the mining industr y 33 we found no reliable
evidence indicating that any local CMC distributor, apart from GMA (see paragraph
57 below), is currently supplying imported technica l grade CMC to platinum mining
customers in South Africa. Furthermore, both ChemQu est and Protea Mining
(“Protea”) source their CMC requirements from GMA. Neither have we found any
evidence of platinum mining customers directly importing CMC.
57. With regards to GMA, it currently imports CMC f rom Lamberti and uses this for
further processing and blending of technical grade CMC used in mining flotation.
Although Ferrari indicated that Lamberti used to (t hrough a local distributor) supply
technical grade CMC to a platinum mining customer i n South Africa (but stopped
this supply more than 15 years ago because it was n ot economically viable), 34
Lamberti currently supplies CMC to GMA. 35 Nielson’s evidence however was that all
imported CMC of GMA is used in blends and cannot re place the CMC supplied to it
by CD as a base in the blending or reacting process to produce the range of CMC
products that GMA currently supplies to its mining customers. 36
58. Neilson further testified in chief on GMA’s att empts to import technical grade CMC
into South Africa, the costs of such imports and ce rtain problems relating to the
quality and performance of certain international CM C sources of supply. He stated

quality and performance of certain international CM C sources of supply. He stated
that GMA in order to reduce its dependence on its p rimary supplier, CD, has
investigated the potential for importing technical grade CMC to use in the mining
industry.


33 Shannon’s witness statement, paragraph 4.8.
34 Ferrari’s witness statement, paragraph 20. Also see transcript page 394.
35 Ferrari’s witness statement, paragraph 32.
36 See transcript, inter alia , pages 534 to 536, 547 and 548.

NON-CONFIDENTIAL VERSION
17

59. Nielson further testified that GMA over the las t few years investigated sourcing
imports from China, India and Europe, specifically from Lamberti. 37 According to
Neilson, GMA has been unable to find a source of su pply which is both of suitable
quality and competitive on a cost basis with the do mestically produced CMC. 38 He
also testified that where he could find equivalent CMC products to that sourced
locally from CD, there were problems with the cost of importing such products and
where the cost was reasonable, the products did not pass tests on quality and
performance. In Nielson’s words: “[n]ormally when the spec is correct the cost is too
much, when the cost is correct the spec is not corr ect. Often you get products that
are supposedly equivalent specs that you find they are not at all especially coming
from China you find that a lot of the products are not exactly or not anywhere near
the spec they supposedly report it to be .”39
60. Neilson further referred to extensive email cor respondence between GMA and
international CMC manufacturers in which requests f or products were made – i.e.
CMC products with equivalent specifications to that currently supplied to GMA by
CD. He referred to GMA’s comments on the quotations supplied, which included
that: the products did not work; 40 the prices quoted, together with applicable duties ,
were unworkable; 41 the products failed laboratory tests when compared to the
currently used material;42 the DS was too low and therefore the sample failed ;43 and
in the case of high purity products it performed sa tisfactorily but was too
expensive.44
61. We note that Nielson acknowledged that the diff iculty with CMC imports is not per
se a quality issue, i.e. it is technically possible f or an imported product to replicate
that produced and supplied to GMA by CD. Although h e stated that “it is technically
possible to source imported CMC of sufficient quant ity and quality for the mining

possible to source imported CMC of sufficient quant ity and quality for the mining

37 Transcript page 541.
38 Nielson’s witness statement, paragraph 22.
39 Transcript page 542.
40 Transcript pages 550 and 551.
41 Transcript page 551.
42 Transcript page 554.
43 Transcript page 555.
44 Transcript pages 555 and 556.

NON-CONFIDENTIAL VERSION
18

flotation process ”, he maintained that it is not possible to source imported CMC of
an acceptable quality “at a competitive price ”. 45
62. With regards to price, Nielson noted that impor ted CMC from certain countries is
subject to an import duty while those from the EU c an enter duty free; 46 that by
importing CMC raises the costs of local transportat ion from the port of Durban; and
that CMC imports require the keeping of higher local stock levels to offset the risk of
disruptions of the flotation process at mines. 47 This increases a local distributor’s
storage costs.48
63. We note that the economic experts of the mergin g parties and Commission agreed
that customs duties and transport costs would have to be added to the price of
imported CMC to arrive at the landed costs of CMC, but disagreed on the exact
calculation of such costs and its ultimate impact o n a comparison between the
landed cost of an imported CMC product and the delivered price of CD’s product.
64. With regards to the requirement of increased lo cal CMC stock levels Nielson
explained that “ [m]ines are extremely sensitive to any disruption o f the flotation
process, and thus in order to offset the risks of a disruption in international supply
chains, the importer must hold much larger stocks o f inventory than is needed when
domestic CMC can be purchased .” 49 We have accepted Nielson’s argument since it
is entirely consistent with Green’s evidence. Green , from a mining customer
perspective, underscored the importance of security of CMC supply to a mine. He
stated that “ Lonmin needs a steady supply of reagents to make su re that its
concentrator plants are kept in operation .” 50 Green further testified that Lonmin
cannot accept any interruption in CMC supply. He st ated that “ I think if you worked
on a production plant of most types, specifically i n precious metals any disruption in
your operation costs money, not only the metal that you lose but to start up an

your operation costs money, not only the metal that you lose but to start up an
operation again costs tremendous amount of money, g etting the process stabilised

45 Nielson’s witness statement, paragraph 24.
46 Shannon indicated that there are no import tariffs payable in relation to CMC imported from
Europe and that imports from India, China and Turkey are subject to an import tariff of 10% (see
Shannon’s witness statement, paragraph 4.6).
47 Nielson’s witness statement, paragraph 23.
48 Transcript pages 565 and 566.
49 Nielson’s witness statement, paragraph 23.
50 Green’s witness statement, paragraph 18.

NON-CONFIDENTIAL VERSION
19

and getting back to use it in normal terms, getting back to recovery level costs
money and loss in production. So no loss in production is acceptable .”51
65. On Truen’s version, the lost “opportunity costs ” due to the higher CMC stock level
requirement would add an additional 2% to the lande d cost of the CMC. Murgatroyd
did not dispute that these higher costs exist, but argued that Truen’s figure was
exaggerated. We can however accept that higher loca l stock levels are required
when importing CMC and that this would increase a l ocal distributor’s, such as
GMA’s, costs compared to a situation where a local source of CMC supply is
available (as would be available to Senmin post-merger).
66. Furthermore, Ferrari’s testimony regarding the price of its CMC exports to South
Africa (through its commercial arrangement with GMA ) corroborated Nielson’s
testimony. When challenged under cross-examination Ferrari explained that the
reason for Lamberti not being competitive in South Africa is that a local
manufacturer, CD, supplies GMA. He stated that “ [i]t makes no point to try and try
and try again with a customer [GMA] that is saying more than one time that we
[Lamberti] are not competitive .” 52
67. We note that we have found the price-related ev idence of Pretorius in relation to
CMC imports to be of little probative value since i t related to a specific historic
period, i.e. 2009.
68. Under cross-examination it was suggested to Nie lson that GMA’s past
investigations of CMC imports were related only to sourcing products that were
cheaper than the base product supplied by CD and th at this was the basis of his
comparison. 53 In other words, it was suggested that Nielson’s pa st investigations of
CMC imports (allegedly aimed only at finding lower CMC prices) are irrelevant to
the likely competition effects inquiry in a post-merger world.
69. Whilst we accept that the question raised in th e context of this merger assessment

69. Whilst we accept that the question raised in th e context of this merger assessment
is whether there would be feasible alternatives ava ilable to GMA post-merger in the
event that Senmin refused to supply GMA with the re levant CMC base product or

51 Transcript page 77.
52 Transcript page 432.
53 Transcript page 743.

NON-CONFIDENTIAL VERSION
20

otherwise raised the price thereof to GMA (as part of a strategy to raise GMA’s
costs and force GMA out of the market), we do not r egard Nielson’s evidence as
irrelevant to the merger assessment given the parti cular circumstances of this case,
as explained below.
70. Nielson’s evidence was clear that GMA investiga ted the possibility of imports “ over
the last few years when we have had this merger app lication going through but
before that as well .... ”54 In paragraph 16 above we noted that this merger wa s first
notified to and prohibited by the Commission in 2009.
71. Furthermore, not only did Neilson in re-examina tion confirm that he was looking for
CMC products that had equivalent performance to the product sourced from CD and
were economically competitive 55 , but also gave uncontested evidence of threats
made by CD, on two separate occasions, i.e. both in 2010 and 2011, to cut the
CMC supply to GMA. Nielson stated that “ [i]n 2010 we were threatened with
foreclosure if we didn’t lift the prohibition of (s ic) [objection to] the merger and were
told that the supply would be stopped to us that th ere was only 8 tons of product left
for us while supply would be continued to Senmin .. .”;56 and “[t]he second incident
was in December 2011 when the Competition Commissio n was again considering
the merger we were told ... line [supplying CMC to GMA] closed and will not reopen
in 2012 .... ”57
72. Given that the supply of CMC by CD to GMA was u nder real threat for a
considerable period of time, GMA had a genuine comm ercial incentive to find an
alternative CMC source of supply even if at the sam e price than the (then
prevailing) CD price. Given these circumstances we do not accept the merging
parties’ argument that GMA in the past would only h ave sought a cheaper overseas
CMC supplier than CD and not one with a similar price to CD.
73. The merging parties’ further counter to Neilson ’s evidence was to produce

73. The merging parties’ further counter to Neilson ’s evidence was to produce
quotations from three potential CMC suppliers (one Turkish and two Chinese firms)
that they contended were equivalents of that suppli ed by CD to GMA, and that the

54 Transcript page 541.
55 Transcript page 771.
56 Transcript page 592.
57 Transcript pages 592 and 593.

NON-CONFIDENTIAL VERSION
21

prices quoted were competitive. This evidence was h owever unhelpful and indeed
meaningless from a substitution perspective since n one of these products were
tested for quality and performance, which testing t he factual witness considered a
prerequisite of any CMC supply to mining customers (see paragraphs 102 and 103
below). Botha conceded that no testing whatsoever w as done on these products to
date 58 . One therefore cannot assume that these CMC produc ts would be of an
acceptable quality to local mining customers. Below we shall discuss the elements
that mining customers consider in their CMC procure ment decisions and note that
this evidence unequivocally was that quality consid erations are the single most
important factor in the choice by a mining customer of a CMC supplier (see
paragraphs 80 to 82 below).
Conclusion
74. We conclude that there is no credible evidence - from both a quality and price
perspective - of potential supplies of imported CMC for use in mining as a real
alternative to the local supply (by CD) of CMC and thus as a potential constraint on
the merged entity after this merger. We however als o recognise that imports - in the
long term - may place an effective upper bound on t he merged entity’s ability to
raise price and restrict output to the domestic market. In this regard we note that the
imposed behavioural conditions on the merged entity are for (an initial) period of 10
years (see condition 6 of the imposed conditions).
Downstream distribution market
75. Mining grade CMC is currently supplied to South African mining customers by
Senmin, GMA, ChemQuest and Protea. ChemQuest and Pr otea, however, source
their products from GMA and on-sell them to the rel evant mines (also see
paragraph 11.4 above). Murgatroyd’s 2011 market sha re analysis confirmed that
the CMC distribution market is highly concentrated with Senmin as the dominant
player with a market share exceeding 50%.
59

player with a market share exceeding 50%.
59
76. Furthermore, both Senmin and GMA tailor the CMC manufactured and supplied to
them by CD to produce a range of depressants that a re suitable for use by mines in

58 Transcript pages 976 to 978.
59 See RBB report, paragraph 55.

NON-CONFIDENTIAL VERSION
22

flotation. There are different methods or a combina tion of methods for tailoring the
products and the two that were testified about can be generally described as
“blending” and “reacting”. Senmin tailors its Sendep products at CD’s manufacturing
facilities in terms of an arrangement with CD. GMA tailors its products at its own
premises.
77. Although ChemQuest and Protea also supply CMC products to mining customers in
South Africa they do not tailor depressants, i.e. t hey source and supply depressants
tailored by GMA. Pretorius confirmed that ChemQuest does not compete with
GMA. He stated that ChemQuest entered into a partne rship/liaison which GMA
around early 2011 that allowed it to sell “GMA depressants into areas where GMA is
not able to sell into ”, which “ allowed ChemQuest to offer a full complement of
flotation chemicals to its mining customers .”60 He further confirmed that ChemQuest
currently cannot purchase CMC directly from CD sinc e it does not have the
resources and technical expertise required to make modifications to depressants
to suit its customers. 61
78. It was further common cause that because of the need for intermediation, mining
customers will not switch to direct supply by inter national CMC manufacturers.
Botha stated that “ [a]s a result of Senmin’s extensive experience in t he supply and
use of reagent chemicals, customers generally regar d Senmin as better able than
they are to manage the chemical preparation and dos ing (addition) to the froth
flotation process .” 62 This means that if mining customers switch CMC sup pliers they
will switch to a local CMC distributor. Post-merger , in the event of input foreclosure
of GMA by the merged entity, such a distributor can only be the merged entity
because ChemQuest and Protea do not tailor CMC products.
79. Thus, for all intents and purposes competition in the market for the distribution of
CMC-based depressants to mining customers in South Africa takes place between

CMC-based depressants to mining customers in South Africa takes place between
Senmin and GMA. We however note that there was a di spute between the merging
parties and the Commission regarding the existence, nature and strength of
competition between these two distributors. We discuss this issue below.

60 Pretorius’s witness statement, paragraph 30.
61 Pretorius’s witness statement, paragraph 34.
62 Botha’s witness statement, paragraph 8.3.

NON-CONFIDENTIAL VERSION
23

Mining customers’ perspective
80. The evidence of the factual witnesses was clear and consistent
on the score that the single most significant eleme nt that a mining customer would
consider in its choice of alternative CMC suppliers /products in the flotation
process is recovery.
81. We have in this regard specifically considered the evidence of
Green of Lonmin as the only mining customer to test ify at the hearing. As
background to Lonmin’s CMC usage, we note that Lonm in uses [a certain CMC
product] 63 from GMA and at present also uses [...] products a t certain of its
concentrator plants, a number of which are on VMS. 64 Green stated that the most
important considerations for Lonmin in the choice o f depressant are optimum
recovery in the flotation process, as well as price (for similar performing CMCs)
and then confirmed this in his oral evidence. 65 He stated that Lonmin “ would not
choose a depressant that is cheap but poor on recov ery ”;66 explained the
considerations for choosing one depressant over ano ther as follows: “... the biggest
reason we look at recovery, the advantage we get fr om the process by using a
specific depressant. The secondary metric that we w ould use is pricing. So
recovery would always outweigh, but there obviously is a point where we would
definitely be influenced by pricing as well ”;67 and confirmed in cross-examination “ I
said recovery first, price second, it is a secondar y metric .” 68 This means that even
if the price of a particular CMC product increased significantly (say by 5% to 10%),
a mine would not switch to a product of lower quali ty, i.e. a product that yields
lower recovery (say of 0.5% less recovery), because the recovery loss would
outweigh the price increase. 69
82. The importance of recovery to their mining cust omers was also
highlighted by Pretorius and Botha. Pretorius state d that “ [m]ines would generally

63 Certain information claimed as confidential by the merging parties or by third parties has been
deleted from these reasons.
64 Green’s witness statement, paragraph 11.4. Also see transcript page 86.
65 Transcript page 68.
66 Green’s witness statement, paragraph 13.
67 Transcript page 67.
68 Transcript page 110.
69 See, for example, transcript page 134.

NON-CONFIDENTIAL VERSION
24

be willing to stomach price increases for performance chemicals like depressants as
the benefits of having a better performing depressa nt would far outweigh the costs
involved .” 70 Botha stated that “ [a]lthough differences in rates of recovery are sma ll,
the financial benefit to the mines of these small i ncreases in efficacy can be very
significant.” 71
83. As noted above, Green further testified that pr ice is an important
consideration for a mine when deciding whether or n ot to switch between similar
performing CMC’s in respect of a particular ore bod y. He stated that “ Lonmin is
sensitive to the price of reagent chemicals. If it has a choice between two
suppliers with a similar product offering (safety, quality, etc.), it prefers to purchase
from the cheaper supplier. Any increase in the pric e of chemical reagents is
considered material, and may trigger a switch to an alternative supplier .” 72 He
further testified that “ we are very ... very price orientated ...”; 73 and “ with the low
pricing of the precious metals at this point in tim e we need to be careful of high
costs, so we need to drive cost down and again it i s in the tough position we are in
right now we need prices to be as low as possible t o maintain profit levels. ”74
84. Botha, in relation to the performance/price de bate, stated that
“[m]ining companies are accordingly willing to abso rb the increased cost of a
better performing chemical because its benefits far outweigh its additional cost .” 75
Botha further held the view that “ it is for this reason that the prices of Senmin CMC
products are significantly higher prices than those of its competitors .” 76 He went on
to say that “ Senmin firmly believes that, in most instances, its products will
achieve better results than GMA’s and Protea’s CMC products, and the higher
price of Senmin’s products is justified on that bas is .” 77
85. However, there was no customer testimony to co llaborate

85. However, there was no customer testimony to co llaborate
Botha’s averments regarding Senmin’s CMC products b eing “ better performing ”

70 Pretorius’s witness statement, paragraph 47.
71 Botha’s witness statement, paragraph 7.4
72 Green’s witness statement, paragraph 17.
73 Transcript page 99.
74 Transcript page 101.
75 Botha’s witness statement, paragraph 7.4.
76 Botha’s witness statement, paragraph 7.4.
77 Botha’s witness statement, paragraph 7.7.

NON-CONFIDENTIAL VERSION
25

and achieving “ better results ” for its mining customers compared to the products of
its competitor(s). To the contrary, Lonmin (as high lighted, the only customer who
gave evidence at the hearing) rejected this notion. If Senmin, as alleged, indeed
had better performing CMC products than other marke t participants it could have
put up a mining customer as a witness to confirm th is, which it did not. Thus we do
not accept Botha’s averments of Senmin products bei ng of a better quality and
higher performing than that of GMA.
86. With regards to the issue of substitutability, Murgatroyd
suggested that the CMC distribution market is chara cterised by such a significant
degree of product and service differentiation that there is, accordingly, limited
competition between the CMC distributors. 78 More specifically, the merging parties
contended that Senmin’s CMC products are differenti ated from that of GMA to the
extent that they do not compete against each other. As evidence of this the merging
parties referred specifically to a divergence in pr ice over time between Senmin’s
CMC product offering and the GMA products, with emp hasis on the nature and
extent of the divergence over time.
87. However, from the outset we note that the quest ion of the
substitutability of different CMC products can only reliably be answered by the
users, i.e. the mining customers of such products. As repeatedly emphasised in
these reasons, Green of Lonmin was the only mining customer that gave evidence
at the hearing. Green’s evidence was that the CMC products that Lonmin purchases
from Senmin and GMA are substitutable from a quality perspective, depending upon
the ore body of the mine. He stated that “ [i]t is not correct in my experience to say
that [the GMA product] and Sendep are significantly differentiated and not
substitutable ”;79 and “[i]t would, in my view, be difficult to conclusively say which one

substitutable ”;79 and “[i]t would, in my view, be difficult to conclusively say which one
of the different depressants sold by Senmin and GMA is comparatively best .” 80 He
further confirmed this in his oral evidence. He tes tified that Lonmin tested both
Senmin’s Sendep 30F and [a specific GMA] product at its Roland Concentrator and
found no real difference in recovery. 81 Botha could not dispute this. 82 Green further

78 See RBB report inter alia paragraph 184.
79 Green’s witness statement, paragraph 24.
80 Green’s witness statement, paragraph 25.
81 Transcript page 82.
82 Transcript pages 846 and 847.

NON-CONFIDENTIAL VERSION
26

stated that “ I can tell you that we can substitute between [the GMA product] and
30F quite easily. It has been detected that 30D we have for instance a test on the
go right now whether we should continue 30D or conv ert to 30F and maintain
certain plants on [the GMA product], so a real comp arison is between 30F and [the
GMA product].”83 In cross-examination he maintained “ I would agree ... to the extent
that 30F and [the GMA product] gives similar recoveries. ”84
88. With regards to Senmin’s 30D product Green test ified that “[w]ell
30D we haven’t proven it, we are in the process of testing as I say but we believe
we can get a percent increase in recovery for stick ing with [the GMA product] and
with 30F in certain concentrators versus 30D .” 85 He was of the initial view that “ the
30F is the better one of the 30D and 30F, 30F is th e better depressant ”; 86 and “we
had a choice between 30F and 30D. 30F has proven to be the better reagent, it is
proving to be a better reagent ”87 but later said that “we [Lonmin] are busy doing test
work on the 30D in particular in comparison with 30 F and [the GMA product] ”;88 “it
would be unfair of me to say categorically that 30D is definitely worse than 30F but
as I say we are busy investigating that ”;89 and “ what I am saying is that of late we
have detected maybe deterioration and which we are investigating. So I will not for
this tribunal at this point in time be able to put that down as pure fact because it is
within investigation. What we will do from our side is we will continue the work with
Senmin of the 30D to establish exactly where we are with that.”90
89. We note that the relevant issue is not the diff erences between the
CMC products that Senmin supplies to Lonmin (i.e. S enmin’s 30D and 30F
products), but the customer’s view of the substitut ability of the CMC products
supplied by respectively Senmin and GMA.


83 Transcript page 83.

83 Transcript page 83.
84 Transcript page 135.
85 Transcript page 83.
86 Transcript page 109.
87 Transcript page 111.
88 Transcript page 191.
89 Transcript page 195.
90 Transcript page 193.

NON-CONFIDENTIAL VERSION
27

90. In conclusion: Green considered the relevant Se nmin product (i.e.
Sendep 30F) and the GMA supplied CMC product to be substitutable - despite them
having different characteristics.91
91. With regards to the available price data on the CMC offerings of
respectively Senmin and GMA, it was common cause that there is a significant price
differential between the Senmin offering on the one hand and the GMA offering on
the other hand. This was confirmed inter alia by Green. 92
92. We however note that evidence of price differen ces (even if used
for comparable product offerings) is not conclusive on the issue of substitution.
93. Furthermore, important in this case is that the price data relied on
by the merging parties were misleading since it rel ated to different product offerings
by respectively Senmin and GMA. The Senmin CMC pric e data relied on namely
included certain equipment costs, 93 which equipment is not provided by GMA to its
mining customers and therefore is not factored into its CMC prices. Green explained
that at Lonmin’s VMS operated concentrator plants, Senmin supplies both the CMC
itself and the equipment needed to store and mix th e CMC. 94 He stated “ [t]he VMS
package is such that Senmin provides CMC storage eq uipment and feeding
equipment ”;95 “ Senmin provides mixing systems and dispersing syste ms that are
managed well. They control delivery and feeding, making sure that everything works
well ”; 96 “VMS gives you the ability, it gives you people and it gives you a plant which
had you not had you would have to put up yourself a nd you would have to staff
yourself ”; 97 and “[i]n terms of the VMS agreements with Senmin howeve r, Lonmin is
not charged any additional amount for the equipment supplied by Senmin in the
price for the products. ”98 Green further said that the value of this equipmen t “ goes
into the order of millions .”99 Green further noted that the Senmin supplied equipment

into the order of millions .”99 Green further noted that the Senmin supplied equipment

91 Transcript pages 515, 516, 173 and 196.
92 Green’s witness statement, paragraph 27. Also see transcript page 94.
93 See, for example, transcript pages 817 and 818.
94 Green’s witness statement, paragraph 22.
95 Green’s witness statement, paragraph 33. Also see transcript page 90.
96 Green’s witness statement, paragraph 35.
97 Transcript page 144.
98 Green’s witness statement, paragraph 28.
99 Transcript page 142. Also see transcript page 199 for a quantification of the cost of this
equipment.

NON-CONFIDENTIAL VERSION
28

reduces Lonmin’s capital costs: “ VMS offered an attractive opportunity to reduce
capital costs as Senmin offered to purchase and install new CMC equipment .”100
94. The merging parties submitted that Senmin effectively amortizes the cost of its VMS
services and equipment across all of its sales. Bot ha confirmed that the cost of
chemicals purchased from Senmin does not vary depen ding on whether or not the
customer has purchased equipment from Senmin or has requested Senmin to apply
a service and/or equipment. However, despite mining customers’ possible
perception that these services are provided for fre e, 101 Botha conceded that vendor
management is “ a real cost. So whether I have vendor management in there or
sales cost generally to all the customers that cost line is in there .”102 As noted in
paragraph 7 above, the majority of Senmin’s CMC sales take place through VMS.
95. The cost of the equipment and services provided by Senmin must be recovered and
is factored into its pricing. The costs which are n ot common to both Senmin and
GMA could be one potential explanation for the (gro wing) price differences between
the Senmin and GMA product offerings over time. We have no data available from
Senmin with regards to the costs applying only to S enmin and its calculation over
time.
96. Furthermore, from a mining customer’s perspective a price comparison between the
Senmin and GMA product offerings is further complic ated by differences in the
volumes of CMC used in the flotation process. Green stated that “ [i]n the flotation
process, Lonmin generally uses more [...], compared to [the GMA product].
Because we use more [...], it may further increases it’s (i.e. [...]) cost relative to the
GMA products .” 103 On the other hand, Senmin’s VMS service offering r educes
wastage at the mine and thus mining customers’ tota l costs. According to Green
“[t]he main attraction for Lonmin to have VMS is in the reduced wastage associated

“[t]he main attraction for Lonmin to have VMS is in the reduced wastage associated
with the VMS management technique, which represents a significant cost
saving .” 104 Green further testified that “ [t]he vendor management what it brings to us
... is the saving in wastage which we had high wast age and the ability for Senmin to

100 Green’s witness statement, paragraph 23.
101 Transcript page 935.
102 Transcript page 936.
103 Green’s witness statement, paragraph 29.
104 Green’s witness statement, paragraph 36.

NON-CONFIDENTIAL VERSION
29

help us with capital expenditure as far as putting up reagent handling systems .” 105
Murgatroyd summarised the economic value of VMS as follows: “ I think it has been
accepted and is now common course (sic) [cause] that VMS includes a value added
service, Green also acknowledges that, above and be yond the free equipment that
one gets .”106
97. It was clear from Green’s testimony as a mining customer that the fact that Senmin
provides certain equipment and other services that GMA does not provide,
complicates a direct comparison of the CMC prices o f these two distributors from a
total cost to mine perspective. However, Lonmin nev ertheless considers these two
players to be alternative CMC suppliers despite the differentiated product/service
offering. Green stated “[a]gain I think I have stated that the Sendep produ ct is more
expensive and we use as far as grams per ton, it is higher dosage rate than the
general [GMA product]. So it is more expensive but as I have stated we have the
VMS in place in certain concentrators and we also h ave a no prove (sic) that we
have detrimental recovery issue by using that produ ct .” 107 The following paragraph
summarises Green’s perspective: “ [s]o there is a play off between the capex, the
operating cost as well as what vendor management br ought to us as an advantage
and we didn’t know all the advantages that would co me to be. Saving on wastage
was certainly a big one and as I have stated in my initial questioning is that we are
now ... seriously reviewing [...] specifically and seriously looking at the advantages
of price wise of [the GMA product] versus [...] .” 108
98. Furthermore, although Botha continuously stated that Senmin does not
consider GMA as a competitor, 109 evidence in Senmin’s management minutes
indicated that Senmin does consider how its prices compare to the prices of a
competitor 110 in the downstream market. 111 With regards to this price comparison

competitor 110 in the downstream market. 111 With regards to this price comparison
Botha stated “ if we go to a mine and present our products and the test work and the
mine says you are too expensive then we are natural ly feeling that the benefit is too

105 Transcript pages 115 and 116.
106 Transcript page 1497.
107 Transcript page 94.
108 Transcript page 116.
109 Transcript pages 823 to 828.
110 In this case the price comparison is to ChemQuest.
111 Record page 2050.

NON-CONFIDENTIAL VERSION
30

high and the team will report that the prices will be too high ”. 112 Senmin’s internal
documents also revealed that it perceives GMA as a downstream competitor. A
Directors’ Report of May 2011 states: “ Senmin is achieving margins in excess of
[...]% and is priced considerably higher than our c ompetitor who purchases from the
same source” .113 Botha under cross-examination conceded that Senmin ’s
competitors would include ChemQuest and Protea, but also GMA. 114 Botha stated
“[t]he competitor that we directly compete with in t he market place is ChemQuest
and Protea ”; 115 “ [t]he competitors we compete against is also Protea and is also
ChemQuest ”116 and “ GMA would definitely be a competitor as we see it a t Lonmin
.... ”117 However, as already noted, ChemQuest and Protea so urce their CMC
products from GMA.
99. Botha further conceded that mining customers ma y perceive the products of
Senmin and GMA to be competing in the market as is evident from the following
exchange between the Commission’s counsel and Botha:
“MR MAENETJE: So you are saying from a customer pers pective there may be
a perception that your [Senmin and GMA’s] products compete
by the example you have given of Anglo Plats?
MR BOTHA: Yes .... ”118
100. In conclusion: the evidence relating to the av ailable price data is inconclusive
with regards to the substitutability of the CMC pro ducts supplied by respectively
Senmin and GMA. Senmin’s prices to its mining custo mers are likely to be
influenced by the equipment and services that it pr ovides and the importance of
their components over time. There is furthermore no mining customer evidence that
suggests that the Senmin produced CMC based depress ants have any special
technical capability that makes its product superio r or functionally distinct to that
produced by GMA. In contrast to this, albeit that t here is product differentiation

112 Transcript page 869.

112 Transcript page 869.
113 Record page 656.
114 Transcript pages 852 to 857.
115 Transcript page 855.
116 Transcript page 856.
117 Transcript page 856.
118 Transcript page 825.

NON-CONFIDENTIAL VERSION
31

between Senmin’s Sendep products and GMA’s CMC prod ucts in terms of their
molecular architecture and anionic character, the d irect evidence of the only mining
customer to testify was clear on the score that it considers the Senmin and GMA
products to be substitutable from its perspective.
Ability and incentive to foreclose
101. We have concluded that CD is the monopoly prod ucer of technical grade CMC in
South Africa and that Senmin is the dominant distri butor of technical grade CMC
products to mining customers in South Africa. Curre ntly the only true competitor to
Senmin at the technical grade CMC distribution leve l is GMA. We further note that
the technical grade CMC supplied by CD to GMA forms the base in the majority of
GMA’s CMC products and is therefore a significant input to GMA. 119
102. With regards to potential CMC imports, it was clear that any potential imported
CMC product would first need to be tested to determ ine that it is of acceptable
specification and quality, followed by laboratory a nd plant tests before a mining
customer would use such product. Green confirmed th at switching between
alternative suppliers of CMC would take a considera ble period of time if the
products of a specific supplier have not already be en tested by the mine. Green
stated “ we test all reagents and all bodies through that pl ant. Once we have
established that the reagent might be worthwhile lo oking at as far as recovery, we
would then choose one of the concentrators to test it on for a period of time.
Normally that would be not less than a three month period. So it could be anything
from three months to a year that would test on that concentrator. Only once where
we established that there is an improvement in reco very, would we further the test
work to another concentrator and then implement it through other concentrators. So
it is a process we go through, it is quite a long p rocess. In my experience the

it is a process we go through, it is quite a long p rocess. In my experience the
shortest period would be a year in total.”120
103. This was further confirmed by Botha and Nielso n. Botha stated that one would
need to test any imported product and, if found to work, go through trials before a
mine could take it on. 121 Nielson stated that for a distributor such as GMA, the

119 Transcript page 69.
120 Transcript page 69.
121 Transcript pages 977 and 978.

NON-CONFIDENTIAL VERSION
32

process of competing for a new client can take six to twelve months from the point
at which testing is first undertaken, through to th e development of chemical
modifications and further testing, until the point at which the client is placing bulk
orders for the chemical concerned in order to use it in its flotation process. 122
104. None of the potential imported CMC from three different sources that the merging
parties contended were equivalents to that currentl y supplied by CD to GMA have
been tested for quality (i.e. recovery) at the Sout h Africa mines (see paragraph 73
above).
105. It was further evident that the security of co ntinued CMC supply is of paramount
importance to a mining customer. A mine requires co ntinuous platinum production
and thus uninterrupted CMC supply. Green’s testimon y was clear on the absolute
need for security of supply. He confirmed that in o ne instance Lonmin placed a
supplier 123 on notice on the strength of a possibility that su pplies may be disrupted,
even before supplies were in fact disrupted. 124
106. The evidence, on balance, has shown that GMA, as the only other significant
local CMC blender and distributor (besides Senmin), is unlikely to defeat a post-
merger foreclosure strategy by replacing the CMC cu rrent purchased from CD with
a viable imported product of both an acceptable qua lity and a competitive local
price. Furthermore, there is no evidence of alterna tive sources of competitive
constraints that would remain unaffected by a post- merger foreclosure strategy of
the merged entity. We have thus found no credible e vidence of imports or other
factors as a post-merger constraint on the ability of the merged entity to foreclose
rival distributors of CMC, in particular GMA.
107. The merging parties however contended that any foreclosure strategy by the
merged entity would be unprofitable and thus self-d efeating because the merged

merged entity would be unprofitable and thus self-d efeating because the merged
entity would not be able to divert to itself a suff icient percentage of its sales lost by
GMA downstream. This contention of the merging part ies depended in large
measure on the credibility of import competition in technical grade CMC and on the

122 Nielson’s witness statement, paragraph 31.
123 I.e. a grinding media (the steel ball or steel rod used in mills) supplier.
124 Transcript pages 77 and 78.

NON-CONFIDENTIAL VERSION
33

extent of the differentiation downstream that they contended will hinder any
significant diversion of the lost sales.
108. However, as concluded above, on both the above -mentioned scores we have
found no credible evidence in support of the mergin g parties’ case. We have
already dealt with potential imports above. The merging parties theory that the CMC
products and services sold and provided by Senmin, on the one hand, and GMA
(and Protea and ChemQuest) on the other, are so dif ferentiated that it is extremely
unlikely that sufficient numbers of mines, faced wi th the prospect that they could no
longer secure alternative sources of CMC product, w ould switch to a Senmin
product, was not substantiated by mining customer evidence.
109. We note that we have found the economic expert s’ hypothetical diversion
analysis to be unhelpful in making a conclusive fin ding on the merged entity’s post-
merger incentive to foreclose. Murgatroyd testified that the diversion calculations
and analyses posited by Truen, being based on gradu al/partial foreclosure, are
unhelpful to the Tribunal since it is unlikely to be a sufficiently good approximation to
be probative of the necessary levels of diversion. 125 Murgatroyd agreed that the
Tribunal should consider the factual evidence to de termine the likelihood of
diversion.126
110. We have considered the fact that there has bee n some switching over time by
mining customers between alternative CMC distributo rs. Although this switching is
limited, it must be seen in the context that: (i) m ining customers require continuous
production and therefore are highly sensitive to an y possible disruptions in the
supply of CMC; (ii) mining customers are highly qua lity sensitive and quality is
perceived as recovery performance, which is the sin gle most important determinant
in the choice of a CMC supplier/product; (iii) mining customers cannot rapidly switch

in the choice of a CMC supplier/product; (iii) mining customers cannot rapidly switch
to an untested CMC product; and (iv) cost (i.e. pri ce) is a further consideration for a
mining customer in the case of similarly performing CMC products. One therefore
would not expect frequent customer switching or chu rn in this market. This however
does not imply that GMA (and ChemQuest and Protea), as potential alternative

125 Transcript pages 1484 to 1487.
126 Transcript page 1619.

NON-CONFIDENTIAL VERSION
34

CMC suppliers to mining customers, do not constrain Senmin in its CMC pricing and
other competitive decisions.
111. We have highlighted mining customers’ need for a continuous and secure supply
of CMC (see paragraph 64 above). Given the customer s’ absolute need for security
of supply, in the event of even partial post-merger foreclosure, continued security of
supply will be in issue and a mining customer would consider switching, i.e. finding
an alternative and secure CMC supply source. Theref ore the mere knowledge by a
mining customer that GMA (or another potential down stream CMC supplier) may
post-merger face possible supply disruptions would result in the customer taking
steps to find an alternative and secure source of C MC supply, which only the
merged entity would be able to offer in South Afric a. Mining customers would be
aware that Senmin, as a post-merger vertically inte grated company, would have a
stable and secure local source of CMC inputs.
112. Furthermore, in a hypothetical situation where suitable imported CMC inputs
were available to say GMA, a mining customer could still insist on subjecting any
new GMA products to tests, and in the meantime turn to the next best available
alternative which would be a Senmin product as curr ently exists or as adapted or
innovated to meet the specific customer’s requireme nts. Given the highly
concentrated nature of the industry we don’t see ho w GMA would be able to hide
the fact from its customers if it replaces the CMC inputs currently purchased from
CD with an imported product. Customers would soon e nough learn of this fact. This
was confirmed by Green. He was asked what Lonmin wo uld do if GMA came to it
and say that it is not able to guarantee supply for the coming month. Green
responded as follows: “ Again you would look at the next best reagent; depr essant
which is a Sendep product, Sendep 30F is probably t he next best. It would be

which is a Sendep product, Sendep 30F is probably t he next best. It would be
critical to the operation this is one of the - well the depressants being one of the
critical reagents to the reagent suite. I would say it is easier to look at other
commodities and give notice and get alternative sup ply to what it is to reagents,
reagents are very specific .” 127 Green was further asked to comment on a
hypothetical scenario where GMA were to say to Lonm in that it cannot confirm
supply for the next month but that it will be sourc ing the equivalent of [the product

127 Transcript page 78.

NON-CONFIDENTIAL VERSION
35

supplied by CD to GMA] from China in the second month and supply that to Lonmin.
Green’s response was as follows: “ We could not accept that because we don’t know
what the replacement depressant really is. It is st ated it is like competitive or equal
to [the currently supplied GMA CMC product] but we would have to test the reagent
to ensure that it is the same product .” 128 He then went on to say that this testing
would not take less than a year. 129
113. The merging parties are aware of the above com petitive advantages in the
context where they post-merger short supply GMA.
114. It was further common cause amongst the factua l witnesses that both Senmin
and GMA provide flotation testing and modification services to their South African
mining customers. Botha emphasised the importance o f managing the chemical
preparation and dosing to the froth flotation proce ss. He stated that froth flotation is
a complex process and that small variations in the characteristics of the chemicals
used, and the quantity and concentration of those c hemicals, can have a very
significant effect on the recovery of a mineral fro m ore. He went on to say that the
process is further complicated by the fact that the characteristics of the ore will also
impact significantly on the effect of these variati ons. He stated that as a result of
Senmin’s extensive experience in the supply and use of reagent chemicals,
customers generally regard Senmin as better able th an they are to manage the
chemical preparation and dosing (addition) to the f roth flotation process. 130 Nielson
indicated that in performance chemicals such as CMC , “ it may also be desirable to
undertake alterations to the CMC to achieve the des ired flotation result .” 131 Ferrari
stated that the technical work to modify the CMC to match the performance
requirements of a particular ore body has always be en quite complex due mainly to

requirements of a particular ore body has always be en quite complex due mainly to
the nature of care and efficiencies required for th e CMC supplied to South African
mines, which requires expert modifications. This he stated is what has driven
Lamberti to cooperate with local companies such as GMA that have the ability and

128 Transcript page 93.
129 Transcript page 94.
130 Botha’s witness statement, paragraph 8.3.
131 Nielson’s witness statement, paragraph 29.

NON-CONFIDENTIAL VERSION
36

experience in terms of flotation testing and assist ing in the selection of the product
and effecting the modifications required to meet the specific customer’s needs. 132
115. There is not only the practice of continuous a daptation of CMC products to meet
(new) mining customers’ needs, but also ongoing product innovation. 133 As stated in
the rationale for the proposed transaction (see par agraph 14 above), Senmin
specifically submitted that it wishes to further de velop the technology in its CMC
products through the proposed deal. There is thus n o reason to suppose that in the
event of a post-merger foreclosure strategy, the me rged entity would not be able to
adapt its products, or to innovate in order to meet the requirements of mines that
were GMA customers pre-merger.
116. From a mining customer perspective, Green conf irmed that in the case of Lonmin
there is on-going testing of competitor CMC product s. Where the mine had in the
recent past tested any of Senmin’s CMC products it therefore would be relatively
easy to switch to a Senmin product in the event of a post-merger foreclosure
strategy.134 There is no other customer evidence to counter this.
117. Inter alia the highly concentrated nature of both the upstrea m and downstream
relevant markets; the specific demand characteristi cs of a mining customer; Green
of Lonmin’s view of the CMC products of respectivel y Senmin and GMA; the
evidence that (potential) imported CMC is not a rea l alternative to local CMC supply
by CD in terms of it being of both an acceptable qu ality (i.e. a functional substitute)
and having a competitive price (i.e. an economic su bstitute); the continuous
adaptation of CMC products to mining customers’ nee ds; the ongoing product
innovation and testing of products; as well as the lack of customer evidence that the
CMC products of Senmin and GMA are significantly di fferentiated, lead us to

CMC products of Senmin and GMA are significantly di fferentiated, lead us to
conclude that the merged entity would have the abil ity to foreclose downstream
rivals, that diversion is likely and that a post-me rger foreclosure strategy would be
attractive to the merged entity.


132 Ferrari’s witness statement, paragraph 22.
133 See, for example, Shannon’s testimony at pages 1107 to 1111 of the transcript. Also see
Nielson’s testimony at page 604 of the transcript.
134 See Green’s testimony at transcript page 78.

NON-CONFIDENTIAL VERSION
37

118. Pre-merger the existence of GMA provides minin g customers with a choice
between two alternative CMC distributors. Senmin in its internal documents
acknowledges the risk that mining customers might want to have a competitor in the
market,135 and that it tracks the pricing of competitor(s) (s ee paragraph 98 above).
In the event that GMA is foreclosed, mining customers would thus not have a choice
of competitors at the distribution level, which wil l reduce their bargaining position
against the merged entity, which leaves the merged entity unconstrained to
increase prices or to reduce quality. Competition i n terms of quality of CMC
performance enhancements is likely to be hindered, as the only other firm offering
performance enhancements, i.e. GMA, would be forecl osed. This is likely to reduce
the rate of technological improvement in the CMC ma rket, which may affect mining
yields in the mining sector in the long run. 136
119. We therefore conclude that the merged entity w ill have both the ability and
incentive to foreclose rivals in the downstream mar ket for the distribution of CMC.
These potential anti-competitive consequences of th e proposed merger are
significant and justify the imposition of conditions to remedy the concerns.
Conditional approval
120. As noted in paragraph 24 above, the Commission during closing argument
suggested that the merging parties’ tendered set of conditions contained certain
weaknesses. Consequently the Tribunal requested the Commission to submit
written comments with regards to these weaknesses. We shall not deal with these
written comments of the Commission in any detail in these reasons, save to say that
the merging parties after further correspondence ac cepted a number of the
Commission’s suggested enhancements and included th em in their final set of
tendered conditions, which we have imposed. We have also imposed an additional

tendered conditions, which we have imposed. We have also imposed an additional
condition on the merging parties (i.e. a condition that they did not tender) that
relates to the ability of the Commission to effecti vely monitor the merged entity’s
compliance with the pricing provisions of the remedy (see condition 5.3).

135 Minutes of meeting of the Board of Directors of 13 May 2010; record page 907. Also see
transcript pages 912 to 915.
136 See the DNA Economics Report, paragraph 81.

NON-CONFIDENTIAL VERSION
38

121. The imposed set of conditions guarantee the su pply by the merged entity of an
annual minimum quantity of CMC to GMA (see conditio n 1 of the imposed
conditions), at an equivalent quality and specifica tions as currently supplied (see
condition 1.2), together with a pricing formula for calculating the maximum price of
supply (see conditions 2.1 to 2.3). The conditions also cater for the supply of CMC,
under certain circumstances, to players other than GMA on non-discriminatory
terms (see condition 1.3). Furthermore, if notified of a CMC price increase, a
customer shall be entitled to request independent v erification of the associated cost
increases from an auditor (see conditions 2.4 to 2. 7). The imposed set of conditions
further provide for specific conditions relating to inter alia supply volume adjustment,
production stoppages and supply interruptions or sh ortages and independent
verification thereof (see condition 3); regular tes ting by the merged entity to
maintain CMC product specifications (see condition 4); as well as a number of
reporting and monitoring conditions (see condition 5).
122. We are satisfied that the conditions that we h ave imposed adequately address
and are proportional to the identified post-merger input foreclosure concern. We
note that Green, as the only mining customer to tes tify at the hearing, was in
principle satisfied with a CMC supply condition tha t post-merger would maintain the
pre-merger status quo, i.e. two CMC distributors (i .e. Senmin and GMA) in the
market. 137
CONCLUSION
123. We concur with the Commission’s finding that t he proposed transaction, from a
vertical perspective, is likely to substantially pr event or lessen competition in the
relevant market. However, this concern of post-merg er likely input foreclosure of
CMC distributors, specifically GMA, is adequately a ddressed by the behavioural
conditions imposed on the merged entity. We therefo re approve the proposed

conditions imposed on the merged entity. We therefo re approve the proposed
merger subject to the conditions as per the attached “ Annexure A ”.

____________________ 07 February 2013

ANDREAS WESSELS DATE



137 Transcript page 162.

NON-CONFIDENTIAL VERSION
39

Merle Holden concurring

Tribunal researcher: Ipeleng Selaledi
For the merging parties: Adv J Wilson with G Marrio tt
For the Commission: Adv N H Maenetje SC with H Raja h